L658-IRÁN SUCESORES HAMENEI

23 de junio 2025 - 17:12

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES

The clock's ticking for senior clerics seeking a successor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader, five insiders with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

Khamenei, 86, is being regularly briefed on the talks, according to the Iranian sources who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive matters. He has gone into hiding with his family and is being guarded by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, a top security official said.

The ruling establishment will immediately seek to name a successor to Khamenei if he is killed, to signal stability and continuity, according to the sources who acknowledged that predicting Iran's subsequent political trajectory was difficult.

A new leader will still be chosen for his devotion to the revolutionary precepts of the Islamic Republic's late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, according to one insider, who is close to Khamenei's office and privy to succession discussions.

At the same time, the top echelon of power is also considering which candidate might present a more moderate face to ward off foreign attacks and internal revolts, the person said.

Two frontrunners have emerged in the succession discussions, the five insiders said: Khamenei's 56-year-old son Mojtaba, long seen as a continuity choice, and a new contender, Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the father of the Islamic revolution.

Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that favours the easing of social and political restrictions, nonetheless commands respect among senior clerics and the Revolutionary Guards because of his lineage, the sources added.

Khomeini has come into the frame as a serious candidate this month amid the conflict with Israel and America because he could represent a more conciliatory choice internationally and domestically than Mojtaba Khamenei, the five people said.

Hassan Khomeini's close links to the reformist faction of Iranian politics, which pursued an ultimately unsuccessful policy of opening Iran to the outside world in the 1990s, saw hardline officials bar him from running as a member of senior clerical body the Assembly of Experts in 2016.

By contrast, Khamenei aligns closely to his father's hardline policies, according to the insiders who cautioned that nothing had been determined, candidates could change and the supreme leader would have the final say.

However, with the military conflict continuing, it remains unclear whether any new leader could be chosen easily or installed securely or if he could assume the level of authority enjoyed by Khamenei, they added.

Israeli strikes have also killed several of Iran's top Revolutionary Guards commanders, potentially complicating a handover of power as the elite military force has long played a central role in enforcing the supreme leader's rule.

Khamenei's office and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body from which the succession committee was drawn, were not available to comment.

The urgency of the task was underlined in September when Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally of Khamenei's, and the planning accelerated significantly this month following the Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, which were followed by the American attacks at the weekend.

Khamenei hasn't publicly expressed any preference for his successor.

DESCRIPCIÓN DE IMÁGENES

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (JUNE 22, 2025) (REUTERS - Access all)

1. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"It is possible that we will see a change in the Iranian leadership in one of the two following ways. One is the possibility of U.S. or Israel taking out Ayatollah Khamenei, the current supreme leader. President Trump said the other day that the U.S. has intelligence about where he is located and where his bunker is. And so there is a possibility that they would be able to take him out."

2. WHITE FLASH

3. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"The second possibility is that there are elements within the Revolutionary Guards who might be frustrated with his leadership and management of the country's deterrence, which is now in ruins as a result of about nine months of serious confrontation between Iran and its allies in the region, and Israel, decide that at age 86, he has become too cautious, too passive, too indecisive, and needs to be pushed aside."

4. WHITE FLASH

5. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"I do not believe that Mojtaba Khamenei is a likely successor. One has to understand that this is a revolutionary regime that came to power in 1979 overthrowing a dynastic monarchy. It has lost a lot of legitimacy over the years. And now it's at one of its weakest points ever. If it also comes full circle and becomes a hereditary system itself, I think it really removes the last leg that it's standing on, even in the eyes of its own core constituents."

TEHRAN, IRAN (FILE - OCTOBER 1 , 2024) (OFFICE OF THE IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER/WANA - No use BBC Persian. No use VOA Persian. No use Manoto. No use Iran International) (MUTE)

6. VARIOUS OF STILL PHOTOGRAPHS OF MOJTABA KHAMENEI VISITING HEZBOLLAH'S OFFICE IN TEHRAN

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (JUNE 22, 2025) (REUTERS - Access all)

7. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"It will be a smart move for Ayatollah Khamenei to appoint or push for Hassan Khomeini to become his successor simply because this is a revolutionary system that was born out of the ideas of its founder Ayatollah Khomeini, whose grandson remains very popular. He also appears to be a relative moderate and pragmatic figure. And so, in terms of legitimacy, in terms of continuity, institutional memory, Hassan Khomeini would probably be a very wise choice for Ayatollah Khamenei."

TEHRAN, IRAN (FILE - JUNE 4, 2025) (POOL VIA WANA - No Use Iran. No Use BBC Persian. No Use VOA Persian. No Use Manoto. No Use Iran International)

8. VARIOUS OF HASSAN KHOMEINI AND IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI DURING A CEREMONY TO MARK THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF KHOMEINI

9. VARIOUS OF HASSAN KHOMEINI AND OFFICIALS INCLUDING IRANIAN PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN LISTENING TO KHAMENEI'S SPEECH / CROWDS LISTENING TO SPEECH

TEHRAN, IRAN (FILE - JUNE 4, 2010) (REUTERS/IIPA - Access all) (MUTE)

10. STILL PHOTOGRAPH OF HASSAN KHOMEINI WAVING AS HE SPEAKS AT A CEREMONY TO MARK THE DEATH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC FOUNDER AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI AT KHOMEINI'S SHRINE

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (JUNE 22, 2025) (REUTERS - Access all)

11. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"There are other names that have been circulating now for a while. One is Ayatollah (Gholam-Hossein) Mohseni-Eje'i, who is the current chief of the judiciary. And usually because this is a position that is appointed directly by the supreme leader, is often granted to someone who is very much trusted by the supreme leader. And he has had a track record of being in different security and intelligence machineries of the system, as well as, of course, the judiciary, and therefore has a lot of the credentials that are required for the leadership. There is also a very hard line, extremely ideological Ayatollah known as (Mohammad-Mahdi) Mirbagheri, who is on a spectrum much more hawkish than the current supreme leader."

TEHRAN, IRAN (FILE - JULY 30, 2024) (IRIB - No use Iran. No use BBC Persian, No use VOA Persian, No use Manoto, No use Iran International)

12. (FROM LEFT TO RIGHT) IRAQ'S PRIME MINISTER MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI, TAJIKISTAN'S PRESIDENT EMOMALI RAKHMON, PICTURE OF DECEASED FORMER IRAN PRESIDENT EBRAHIM RAISI ON CHAIR, IRAN'S PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN, IRAN JUDICIARY CHIEF GHOLAM-HOSSEIN MOHSENI-EJE'I AND IRAN'S FORMER VICE-PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD REZA AREF

13. PEOPLE SITTING AT CEREMONY

14. MOHSENI-EJE'I SITTING NEXT TO PEZESHKIAN DURING CEREMONY

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (JUNE 22, 2025) (REUTERS - Access all)

15. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"But it is also possible that it will be someone that nobody expects, nobody has ever heard of. Because, again, if the concept is that the real power behind the veil, which is the current office of the Supreme Leader in which his son Mojtaba is a key powerful figure, and the Revolutionary Guards are seeking to just preserve the facade of the current system and appoint a leader who is no longer supreme and doesn't really rule and is just a figurehead, then it is possible that they would put forward a candidate that no one has ever heard of and would not really hold the same levers of power that Ayatollah Khamenei has held now for more than 30 years."

16. WHITE FLASH

17. (SOUNDBITE) (English) ALI VAEZ, IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"It is necessary that the supreme leader is not a layperson, but a cleric with highest ranking of Ayatollah. But rules are not always obeyed. In 1989, when Ayatollah Khomeini became supreme leader, in fact, he was not an ayatollah and he was turned to Ayatollah almost overnight in a quick process in order to legitimize his rule. But at least the constitution requires that the supreme leader is an Ayatollah."

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