The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday (September 3).

The U.N. weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fueled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.

"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference.

A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like droughts and typhoons.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.

While it is a naturally-occurring phenomenon and not directly linked to fossil fuel-driven climate change, it can be intensified by warmer ocean temperatures, which are.

Sample Pacific Ocean temperatures in this year's El Niño - one of just four categorised in the top "very strong" bracket in records dating back to 1950 - are already more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, the WMO said.

The event has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America's Dry Corridor.

It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said, but its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake.

“The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” Saulo said.

The WMO said it was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation to allow states to take early action, such as switching to drought-resistant crops in some places.

DESCRIPCIÓN DE IMÁGENES

'Supersized' El Niño may become strongest ever recorded, UN says

VIDEO SHOWS: WMO CHIEF SAYING EL NIÑO MAY BECOME STRONGEST EVER RECORDED / ARCHIVE OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES

SENDING WITH COMPLETE SCRIPT

SHOWS: BRISTOL, ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM (ARCHIVE - AUGUST 9, 2026) (REUTERS – Access all) (MUTE)

1.⁠ ⁠DRONE VIEW OF PARCHED PARKLAND AROUND THE CLIFTON OBSERVATORY, WITH THE CLIFTON SUSPENSION BRIDGE BEHIND

LONDON, ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM (ARCHIVE - AUGUST 7, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all) (MUTE)

2.⁠ ⁠DRONE VIEW OF DRIED GRASSLAND ON BLACKHEATH

LONDON, ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM (ARCHIVE - MAY 26, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

3.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS OF WOMAN CARRYING UMBRELLA TO SHADE HERSELF FROM SUN

4.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS OF TEMPERATURE SIGN ON BUILDING READING 35.6 DEGREES CENTIGRADE (96.1 FAHRENHEIT)

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (SEPTEMBER 3, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

5. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO ARRIVING AT PRESS CONFERENCE

6. PRESS CONFERENCE IN PROGRESS

7. (SOUNDBITE) (English) WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO, SAYING:

“The WMO update shows that El Niño has strengthened and will continue as a very strong event, even exceptionally strong. If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”

NEAR PORTO GERMENO, GREECE (ARCHIVE - AUGUST 1, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

8.⁠ ⁠FLAMES SPREADING THROUGH TREES NEXT TO ROAD

9.⁠ ⁠TREES ON FIRE

ZAHOULI VILLAGE, WESTERN ATTICA, GREECE (ARCHIVE - AUGUST 2, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all) (PART MUTE)

10.⁠ ⁠(MUTE) DRONE VIEW OF WILDFIRE RAGING SURROUNDING HOUSE, HUGE PLUMES OF WHITE SMOKE

11. FIREFIGHTERS BATTLING WILDFIRE

KANDILI, GREECE (ARCHIVE - AUGUST 3, 2026) (SKAI TV - No use Greece)

12.⁠ ⁠HORSES RUNNING IN A FIELD WITH FIRES RAGING IN THE BACKGROUND

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (SEPTEMBER 3, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

13. PRESS CONFERENCE IN PROGRESS

14. (SOUNDBITE) (English) WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO, SAYING:

“El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will be felt long after that, including on global temperatures. The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken. WMO will be closely monitoring global temperatures in the months ahead.”

COJATA, BOLIVIA (ARCHIVE - OCTOBER 26, 2023) (REUTERS - Access all)

15.⁠ ⁠(MUTE) DRONE FOOTAGE OF CRACKED EARTH NEAR LAKE TITICACA

16.⁠ ⁠SUN IN SKY

17.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS OF FARMER WORKING IN FIELD WITH DRY SOIL

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (SEPTEMBER 3, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

18. (SOUNDBITE) (English) WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO, SAYING:

“These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. Nearly 100%. This is the first time that we expressed such a degree of certainty.”

ESTERO PUNITAQUI, COQUIMBO, CHILE (ARCHIVE - JULY 20, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all) (MUTE)

19.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS DRONE SHOTS OF OVERFLOWING ESTUARY

CRUZ DE CANA, COQUIMBO, CHILE (ARCHIVE - JULY 20, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all) (MUTE)

20.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS DRONE SHOTS OF FLOODING

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (SEPTEMBER 3, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

21. PRESS CONFERENCE IN PROGRESS

22. (SOUNDBITE) (English) WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO, SAYING:

“El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the region are already well above average and are continuing to rise. Subsurface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high and in some areas more than eight degrees Celsius (14.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal during July and early August. This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Niño.”

AMBOVOMBE, ANDROY REGION, MADAGASCAR (ARCHIVE - JULY 2026) (WFP - Must on screen credit WFP) (MUTE)

23.⁠ ⁠VARIOUS OF DRONE SHOTS OF DRY RIVERBED

AMBOVOMBE, ANDROY REGION, MADAGASCAR (ARCHIVE - JULY 2026) (WFP - Must on screen credit WFP)

24.⁠ ⁠RIVER ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY

25.⁠ PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AROUND NEARLY DRY RIVER

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (SEPTEMBER 3, 2026) (REUTERS - Access all)

26. (SOUNDBITE) (English) WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL, CELESTE SAULO, SAYING:

“El Niño means the 'the boy child' because it was first noticed by Peruvian fishermen around Christmas time. It sounds small and innocent, but this El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe. So many sectors will be affected. Agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management to name but a few. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather. We expect these impacts to multiply and cascade as El Niño intensifies.”

27. SAULO LEAVING PODIUM

28. TV SCREEN SHOWING GRAPHIC ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC / SAULO DURING INTERVIEW

29. SAULO DURING INTERVIEW WITH TV SCREENS SHOWING GRAPHIC ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC

30. VARIOUS OF EXTERIORS OF THE U.N.